Zambia is coming out of a remarkable 2025/26 maize season. Bumper yields delivered a record-setting 4.94 million metric tonnes of maize, well clear of our ~4.2 million metric tonne domestic requirement. But farmers are now making decisions for a very different season.
Meteorological models and early-warning systems indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño returning, with potential impacts including delayed rainfall onset, higher temperatures and longer dry spells between November 2026 and March 2027.
The bumper harvest gives Zambia a cushion but shouldn’t give a false sense of security because the risk has changed. To safeguard farm incomes and secure regional food supply, farming practices must pivot immediately from “maximized yield” to climate-resilient risk management.
For the 2026/27 season, three risks deserve particular attention:
1. Moisture risk
Maize doesn’t need rain simply because it is the rainy season. It needs adequate moisture at particular stages of development.
- At planting: Inconsistent rains cause poor establishment and uneven plant stands.
- During vegetative growth: Mid-season dry spells stunt crop development and root depth.
- At flowering and grain filling: Moisture stress during pollination causes irreversible yield loss.
This makes the distribution and timing of rainfall at least as important as the seasonal total.
If you didn’t read our article earlier in the year about how to prepare for El Niño, read it here.
2. Heat risk
Higher temperatures increase evapotranspiration, meaning crops and soils can lose water more rapidly. A field can therefore move from adequate moisture to serious water stress faster during periods of high heat. This matters particularly when rainfall is already irregular.
3. Financial risk
There is another risk that has nothing to do with the weather.
A record bumper harvest increases market supply and depresses farm-gate prices especially when growers sell simultaneously to raise immediate cash. Selling surplus grain at bottom-tier prices leaves farmers with diminished capital to purchase quality seed, fertilizer, and operational inputs for the upcoming season.
Production risk and price risk can therefore arrive together, even though they come from different directions.
Farming Maize Under El Niño Threat
This is not a time to abandon maize because El Niño is coming. It is a time to reduce unnecessary exposure using these three pillars:
1) Seed selection & maturity matching
Diversify Maturity Windows: Zambia does not have one maize-growing environment. Farmers should avoid putting the entire crop into a single maturity window and, where conditions allow, split acreage between early- to medium-maturing varieties and drought-tolerant varieties suited to their local conditions. This spreads weather risk. The right mix will depend on location, soils, rainfall patterns and available seed.
Stagger planting where conditions allow. Rather than planting the entire maize area at once, divide it into blocks and plant across suitable rainfall windows. A gap of around 7–10 days can spread the crop’s critical growth stages and reduce the chance of the entire crop experiencing a dry spell during flowering and grain filling. However, the interval should be adjusted to the local rainfall pattern and expected length of the growing season.
What to grow during an El Niño Season- Watch video
2) Conservation Agriculture & Moisture Preservation
When rainfall becomes less reliable, soil management becomes water management.
Mulching: Maintaining soil cover can reduce evaporation and protect the soil surface from excessive heating. Crop residues can help protect the soil and contribute to soil organic matter when managed appropriately.
Minimum tillage: Reduced soil disturbance and conservation agriculture practices can also improve water infiltration and retention, although the best system depends on soil type, equipment, weeds and the farmer’s production system.
In-field rainwater harvesting: In fields where runoff is a problem, farmers can use appropriate water-harvesting structures such as tied ridges, contour bunds or planting basins to slow runoff and increase infiltration into the root zone. The right method depends on slope, soil type and the farming system, so these structures should be designed to retain water without creating waterlogging or erosion problems. The objective is simple: keep more rainfall on the field and make it available to the crop for longer.
3) Strategic fertiliser Application
Basal Fertilizer Efficiency: Place Compound D or the recommended basal fertiliser close to the developing root zone to improve nutrient access. Use appropriate placement or micro-dosing methods and avoid placing fertiliser directly against the seed.
Potassium & Foliar Nutrition: Where soil tests or local recommendations indicate a potassium need, adequate potassium can improve plant water regulation and stress tolerance. Commercial farmers can also consider foliar nutrition where there is a demonstrated need.
Integrated Pest Management (Fall Armyworm): Scout maize fields early and regularly. Weather conditions can influence pest pressure, so monitor for Fall Armyworm and have appropriate control options available rather than spraying automatically.
What decisions should every farmer be making now?
Before planting, farmers should decide what happens if the first planting fails.
- How much seed is available for replanting?
- How late can the crop realistically be replanted?
- Which variety would be suitable if the planting window shifts?
- How much additional money can be committed without creating a cash-flow problem?
- Which fields are worth replanting, and which should be left?
These decisions are much easier to make before a drought or failed establishment creates pressure.
Strategic post-harvest steps
Farmers who have grain to sell should think carefully about timing. Immediate post-harvest sales can provide essential cash, but grain value typically peaks during dry-spell market tightening.
Where farmers have suitable storage, adequate drying and the financial capacity to wait, storage can become part of the marketing strategy.
But storage is not automatically profitable. Grain must be stored safely, and the expected price improvement must justify storage, financing, handling and quality risks.
This is where production decisions and financial decisions meet.
Conclusion
Zambia has just demonstrated what its farmers can produce when conditions are favourable. The 2026/27 season may test something different. Not simply how much farmers can produce, but how well they can manage uncertainty.
That means using climate information before planting, matching varieties to the expected production environment, protecting soil moisture, managing inputs carefully and having contingency plans before problems appear.
El Niño is a risk signal. The objective is to make the farm less vulnerable when the weather does not behave as expected.